Research Brief: Predicting Yields for Greenhouse Strawberries
August 7, 2025 
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Researchers at Japan’s National Agriculture and Food Research Organization have developed a computer model that could help greenhouse strawberry growers better predict their yields.
The computer model measures light capture by determining how much sunlight the leaves intercept, calculates how efficiently plants convert light into growth, and monitors how the strawberry plants distribute energy between leaves and fruit.
During the last two growing seasons, the model proved to be accurate when tested. Yield predictions were within 11-17% of actual harvests and total plant growth matched observations with 96-98% accuracy.
The researchers tested the model on the Benihoppe strawberry variety under high-tech greenhouse conditions. They found that the model works with traditional leaf area measurements (requiring some plant sampling) and web camera imaging. The camera-based approach is particularly appealing to growers because it doesn’t require disturbing the plants while still providing accurate predictions.
What’s Next
While their findings are promising, the researchers acknowledge the model needs refinement. Here are a few areas that would benefit from further research:
- Temperature optimization: The current model works best in moderate temperatures (50-77 degrees Fahrenheit). Adjustments are needed for extreme heat or cold periods.
- CO2 enhancement: Many greenhouses use CO2 enrichment in winter. The model needs to be updated to account for this growing practice.
- Variety adaptation: The model was tested on one Japanese cultivar. Parameters may need to be adjusted for different strawberry varieties.
The full research findings can be found on the Frontiers in Horticulture website here: https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/plant-science/articles/10.3389/fpls.2025.1544735/full?utm_source=F-NTF&utm_medium=EMLX&utm_campaign=PRD_FEOPS_20170000_ARTICLE.